The Fan Value Model

What are your
fans worth?

The growth is already in your userbase. Here’s what it’s worth.

Put in a few numbers you already have, and I’ll show you what your fans are worth: what you gain when they stay, spend more, and bring you new customers. The estimate is conservative, and every assumption behind it is yours to change.

Fan Score: how fan-led is your growth?Take the quiz

Your numbers today
Just what you already have to hand. I handle the rest.
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%
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The opportunity, in money
For a $5M brand, fan-led growth could be worth about
Estimate · conservative benchmarks
$562K/ yr

a year, as your fans stay, spend more, and bring you new customers. Your revenue and spend, lifted by conservative benchmarks.

$450K
new revenue
$112K
in ad budget saved
Stay $300Kthey stay longerSpend $150Kthey spend moreBring $112Kthey refer others

New revenue: Stay + Spend = $450KAd budget saved: Bring = $112K

New revenue is the cash your fans add by staying and spending more. Ad budget saved is what you don’t spend when their referrals bring in customers you’d otherwise pay to acquire.
Paid only vs fan-led
Same spend. Different shape.
Both lines start at your $5M. Paid grows in a straight line: each month you buy roughly the same customers. Fan-led curves up, because the ones you keep bring the next, so it compounds.
Paid onlyFan-led
$4.7M$5.6M$6.4M$7.3Mnowmonth 12month 24
By month 24, fan-led tracks to about $6.9M a year against $5.6M on paid alone. Illustrative.
≈ $47K / monthStay + Spend + Bring

Every lever is capped and conservative, with the benchmark behind each one alongside it.

Conservative defaults from published research. Drag if you know your own numbers.

+6 pts
Stay: $300K
Loyalty and retention programs lift repeat purchasing 30 to 60% (industry benchmarks).
+10%
Spend: $150K
Gallup: fully engaged customers spend around 23% more. Applied as a lower blended lift across all repeat customers, since only some become fans.
+14%
Ad budget saved: $112K
Wharton: referral and ambassador programs reach 20 to 35%; Nielsen: word of mouth around 14%. AI-driven referral is emerging and not yet counted.
See it as LTV:CAC (optional). Add your unit economics and I show the ratio move, using your real numbers.
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The Fan Engine

My flagship system is how you build the growth engine that captures this. Tell me your numbers and I’ll baseline it on them.

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How this works. Three levers, the ways fans grow you. Stay = revenue × the retention lift.1 Spend = your repeat revenue × a blended spend lift, kept below the per-fan benchmark because only some customers become fans.2 Bring = the acquisition cost you would otherwise pay for the extra customers fans bring, a blended-CAC improvement, not a cut to today's budget.3 Earned media = views ÷ 1,000 × your CPM. Unit economics use a standard subscription shortcut: lifetime value = your value per customer ÷ (1 − retention), then lifted by the spend slider. Blended CAC = your cost to acquire × (1 − share fans bring). LTV:CAC is those two divided.4 Each lever is an annual estimate against its own base, and they are added as directional figures rather than a compounded P&L. Every lever is capped and conservative, and the exact figure is confirmed against your real numbers in a diagnostic. The chart is an illustrative 24-month projection.

1 Loyalty and retention programs lift repeat purchasing 30 to 60% (industry benchmarks).  2 Gallup: fully engaged customers spend around 23% more, applied here as a lower blended lift across all repeat customers.  3 Wharton: referral and ambassador programs reach 20 to 35%; Nielsen: word of mouth around 14%, valued at the acquisition cost you would otherwise pay. AI-driven referral is emerging and not yet counted.  4 Lifetime value uses the standard subscription shortcut, ARPU ÷ (1 − retention), applied across both business types as a directional simplification. Blended CAC treats fan-driven customers as zero cost; real-world program overhead nudges it slightly higher.

Laura Cordrey · The Fan Engine