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The Fan Value Model

What is the fan gap
worth to you?

The growth is already in your userbase. Here’s what it’s worth.

Put in a few numbers you already have, and I’ll show you what your fans are worth: what you gain when they stay, spend more, and bring you new customers. The estimate is conservative, and you can open the workings behind every figure.


Your numbers today
Just what you already have to hand. I handle the rest.
$
$
%
%
The gap, in money
For a $5M brand, fan-led growth could be worth about
Estimate · conservative benchmarks
$562K/ yr

a year, as your fans stay, spend more, and bring you new customers. Your revenue and spend, lifted by conservative benchmarks.

$450K
new revenue
$112K
in ad budget saved
Stay $300Kthey stay longerSpend $150Kthey spend moreBring $112Kthey refer others

New revenue: Stay + Spend = $450KAd budget saved: Bring = $112K

New revenue is the cash your fans add by staying and spending more. Ad budget saved is what you don’t spend when their referrals bring in customers you’d otherwise pay to acquire.
Paid only vs fan-led
Same spend. Different shape.
Both lines start at your $5M. Paid grows in a straight line: each month you buy roughly the same customers. Fan-led curves up, because the ones you keep bring the next, so it compounds.
Paid onlyFan-led
$4.7M$5.6M$6.4M$7.3Mnowmonth 12month 24
By month 24, fan-led tracks to about $6.9M a year against $5.6M on paid alone. Illustrative.
≈ $47K / monthStay + Spend + Bring

Every lever is capped and conservative. Open the workings if you want the benchmark behind each one.

The Fan Engine

My flagship system is how you build the engine that captures this. Book a call to baseline it on your real numbers.

Let’s talk

How this works. Three levers, the ways fans grow you. Stay = revenue × the retention lift.1 Spend = your repeat revenue × a blended spend lift, kept below the per-fan benchmark because only some customers become fans.2 Bring = the acquisition cost you would otherwise pay for the extra customers fans bring, a blended-CAC improvement, not a cut to today's budget.3 Earned media = views ÷ 1,000 × your CPM. Unit economics use a standard subscription shortcut: lifetime value = your value per customer ÷ (1 − retention), then lifted by the spend slider. Blended CAC = your cost to acquire × (1 − share fans bring). LTV:CAC is those two divided.4 Each lever is an annual estimate against its own base, and they are added as directional figures rather than a compounded P&L. Every lever is capped and conservative, and the exact figure is confirmed against your real numbers in a diagnostic. The chart is an illustrative 24-month projection.

1 Loyalty and retention programs lift repeat purchasing 30 to 60% (industry benchmarks).  2 Gallup: fully engaged customers spend around 23% more, applied here as a lower blended lift across all repeat customers.  3 Wharton: referral and ambassador programs reach 20 to 35%; Nielsen: word of mouth around 14%, valued at the acquisition cost you would otherwise pay. AI-driven referral is emerging and not yet counted.  4 Lifetime value uses the standard subscription shortcut, ARPU ÷ (1 − retention), applied across both business types as a directional simplification. Blended CAC treats fan-driven customers as zero cost; real-world program overhead nudges it slightly higher.

Laura Cordrey · The Fan Engine